A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
