Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
